Engine accuracy

Typical miss is how close the point projection was. Boom is above the ceiling we posted; bust is below the floor. Those two plus “in the band” add to 100%. A fair 20th–80th band is about 60% in, not a percent-correct score.

2026 · Week 5 · 337 skill players

Typical miss

4.3

MAE in half-PPR — this is how close the point projection was

Engine high / low

-0.2

Average projected minus actual. Positive = we were high.

In the band

41%

137 of 337 between floor and ceiling. Fair band ≈ 60%.

Boom

26%

87 scored above the published ceiling

Bust

34%

113 scored below the published floor

QB miss 7.3 · RB miss 4.5 · WR miss 4.0 · TE miss 3.3.

Drake MayeQBNE15.939.5-23.623.6Boom
Isaiah LikelyTENYG5.026.9-21.921.9Boom
Jaylen WarrenRBPIT12.433.8-21.421.4Boom
Tyler ShoughQBNO19.5-0.2+19.719.7Bust
Parker WashingtonWRJAX7.927.4-19.519.5Boom
Christian WatsonWRGB10.629.3-18.718.7Boom
Tua TagovailoaQBATL17.5-0.6+18.118.1Bust
CeeDee LambWRDAL18.61.9+16.716.7Bust
Bucky IrvingRBTB14.030.5-16.516.5Boom
DeMario DouglasWRNE4.020.5-16.516.5Boom
Jameis WinstonQBNYG10.025.7-15.715.7In
Mike EvansWRSF7.322.8-15.515.5Boom
Kyle WilliamsWRNE1.916.6-14.714.7Boom
Teagan QuitorianoTEARI0.414.5-14.114.1Boom
Jahmyr GibbsRBDET21.535.2-13.713.7Boom
Cam WardQBTEN18.05.0+13.013.0Bust
Pat FreiermuthTEPIT6.319.0-12.712.7Boom
George PickensWRDAL11.023.5-12.512.5Boom
Jeremiyah LoveRBARI14.62.2+12.412.4Bust
Omarion HamptonRBLAC16.74.4+12.312.3Bust
Malik NabersWRNYG11.623.6-12.012.0Boom
Bo NixQBDEN19.87.9+11.911.9Bust
Matthew GoldenWRGB5.417.3-11.911.9Boom
Samaje PerineRBCIN2.914.8-11.911.9Boom
MarShawn LloydRBGB5.416.2-10.810.8Boom
Jonathan TaylorRBIND20.09.7+10.310.3Bust
Carnell TateWRTEN11.31.1+10.210.2Bust
Darius CooperWRPHI4.114.1-10.010.0Boom
Nico CollinsWRHOU18.18.1+10.010.0Bust
RJ HarveyRBDEN10.70.7+10.010.0Bust
Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX9.90.0+9.99.9Bust
J.J. McCarthyQBNYG10.00.2+9.89.8Bust
Jaylin NoelWRHOU3.012.7-9.79.7Boom
Jared GoffQBDET19.328.9-9.69.6Boom
Dylan LaubeRBLV0.510.0-9.59.5Boom
Jordan LoveQBGB15.825.3-9.59.5Boom
Kenyon SadiqTENYJ8.8-0.7+9.59.5Bust
Tee HigginsWRCIN12.73.2+9.59.5Bust
Harold Fannin Jr.TECLE10.30.9+9.49.4Bust
Brian RobinsonRBATL10.91.6+9.39.3Bust
David MontgomeryRBHOU10.21.1+9.19.1Bust
Rome OdunzeWRCHI12.53.5+9.09.0Bust
Case KeenumQBCHI9.60.7+8.98.9Bust
Michael WilsonWRARI14.15.3+8.88.8Bust
Rhamondre StevensonRBNE7.216.0-8.88.8Boom
George KittleTESF13.54.9+8.68.6Bust
Bijan RobinsonRBATL22.213.8+8.48.4Bust
Blake CorumRBLAR6.514.7-8.28.2Boom
Chase BrownRBCIN13.65.5+8.18.1Bust
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS6.114.2-8.18.1Boom
Jameson WilliamsWRDET9.617.7-8.18.1Boom
Isaiah BondWRCLE0.98.9-8.08.0Boom
Kevin Coleman Jr.WRMIA2.510.5-8.08.0Boom
Josh AllenQBBUF22.630.5-7.97.9In
Deebo Samuel Sr.WRSF9.31.5+7.87.8Bust
Garrett WilsonWRNYJ12.119.9-7.87.8Boom
Sam DarnoldQBSEA16.18.3+7.87.8In
Tyler WarrenTEIND10.117.9-7.87.8Boom
DK MetcalfWRPIT11.43.8+7.67.6Bust
Kendre MillerRBNO1.49.0-7.67.6Boom
Braelon AllenRBNYJ10.718.1-7.47.4In
Derrick HenryRBBAL13.120.5-7.47.4Boom
T.J. HockensonTEMIN8.61.2+7.47.4Bust
Jaylen WaddleWRDEN10.83.8+7.07.0Bust
Dak PrescottQBDAL19.512.6+6.96.9In
Ollie Gordon IIRBMIA7.914.8-6.96.9Boom
Christian McCaffreyRBSF22.615.8+6.86.8In
Eli RaridonTENE1.48.2-6.86.8Boom
Hayden RucciTELAC0.47.2-6.86.8Boom
Jalen HurtsQBPHI19.813.0+6.86.8In
Justin JeffersonWRMIN9.015.8-6.86.8Boom
Chris OlaveWRNO13.36.6+6.76.7Bust
Germie BernardWRPIT4.711.4-6.76.7Boom
Michael Penix Jr.QBATL7.714.4-6.76.7Boom
Efton Chism IIIWRNE1.88.4-6.66.6Boom
Malik WillisQBMIA12.318.9-6.66.6Boom
Devontez WalkerWRBAL1.47.9-6.56.5Boom
Tyler HuntleyQBBAL17.524.0-6.56.5In
Tanner HudsonTECIN2.58.9-6.46.4Boom
Justin HerbertQBLAC16.510.2+6.36.3Bust
Puka NacuaWRLAR22.929.2-6.36.3In
Will ShipleyRBPHI1.57.8-6.36.3Boom
Alvin KamaraRBNO7.81.6+6.26.2Bust
Romeo DoubsWRNE8.32.1+6.26.2Bust
Rachaad WhiteRBWAS8.62.5+6.16.1Bust
Juwan JohnsonTENO9.63.6+6.06.0Bust
Ryan FlournoyWRDAL4.510.5-6.06.0Boom
Emanuel WilsonRBSEA6.312.2-5.95.9Boom
Jauan JenningsWRMIN5.90.0+5.95.9Bust
Kenny GainwellRBTB10.24.3+5.95.9Bust
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET15.79.9+5.85.8In
Davante AdamsWRLAR13.819.6-5.85.8In
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBJAX7.31.6+5.75.7Bust
Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE12.16.5+5.65.6Bust
Roman WilsonWRPIT5.60.0+5.65.6Bust
Sam LaPortaTEDET11.717.3-5.65.6Boom
Zach ErtzTEPHI5.60.0+5.65.6Bust
Hunter HenryTENE6.411.9-5.55.5In
Mark AndrewsTEBAL8.32.8+5.55.5Bust
TreVeyon HendersonRBNE9.84.3+5.55.5Bust
Brandin CooksWRSF1.87.2-5.45.4Boom
Jeshaun JonesWRMIN0.55.7-5.25.2Boom
Kendrick BourneWRARI4.39.5-5.25.2Boom
Denzel BostonWRCLE7.112.1-5.05.0Boom
Gunnar HelmTETEN5.00.0+5.05.0Bust
Joe BurrowQBCIN19.624.6-5.05.0In
Kimani VidalRBLAC7.112.1-5.05.0Boom
Tez JohnsonWRTB1.96.9-5.05.0Boom
Ty JohnsonRBBUF4.29.2-5.05.0Boom
Jerry JeudyWRCLE8.33.4+4.94.9Bust
Kyle PittsTEATL7.812.7-4.94.9In
Michael MayerTELV5.60.7+4.94.9Bust
Woody MarksRBHOU5.610.5-4.94.9Boom
Jacoby BrissettQBARI20.024.8-4.84.8In
Jake FergusonTEDAL8.23.4+4.84.8Bust
Aaron RodgersQBPIT17.322.0-4.74.7In
Jaleel McLaughlinRBCLE4.70.0+4.74.7Bust
Najee HarrisRBNYG6.61.9+4.74.7Bust
Simi FehokoWRARI0.85.5-4.74.7Boom
Colston LovelandTECHI7.52.9+4.64.6Bust
Darnell MooneyWRNYG7.02.4+4.64.6Bust
Gavin BartholomewTEMIN1.25.8-4.64.6Boom
Bam KnightRBARI5.30.8+4.54.5Bust
Chig OkonkwoTEWAS3.58.0-4.54.5Boom
Justice HillRBBAL4.38.8-4.54.5Boom
KC ConcepcionWRCLE5.51.0+4.54.5Bust
Ashton JeantyRBLV13.69.2+4.44.4Bust
Cade OttonTETB8.44.0+4.44.4In
C.J. StroudQBHOU16.620.9-4.34.3In
Jakobi MeyersWRJAX9.04.7+4.34.3Bust
Noah FantTENO5.51.2+4.34.3Bust
Isaac TeSlaaWRDET4.20.0+4.24.2Bust
Nick Westbrook-IkhineWRIND4.20.0+4.24.2Bust
Trevor LawrenceQBJAX17.521.7-4.24.2In
Eric SaubertTESEA1.45.5-4.14.1Boom
Xavier HutchinsonWRHOU4.48.5-4.14.1Boom
Geno SmithQBNYJ14.010.0+4.04.0In
J.K. DobbinsRBDEN10.414.4-4.04.0Boom
Tyler AllgeierRBARI6.52.6+3.93.9Bust
Brock PurdyQBSF20.016.2+3.83.8In
AJ BarnerTESEA7.23.5+3.73.7Bust
Emeka EgbukaWRTB10.514.2-3.73.7In
Dalton KincaidTEBUF6.83.2+3.63.6In
Dalton SchultzTEHOU8.14.5+3.63.6In
Kirk CousinsQBLV17.313.7+3.63.6In
Tre TuckerWRLV9.15.5+3.63.6In
Tutu AtwellWRLAR4.50.9+3.63.6Bust
Ameer AbdullahRBJAX3.50.0+3.53.5Bust
Colby ParkinsonTELAR4.30.8+3.53.5Bust
Evan EngramTEDEN4.07.5-3.53.5Boom
Tony PollardRBTEN8.75.2+3.53.5In
Chimere DikeWRTEN0.94.3-3.43.4Boom
Olamide ZaccheausWRATL3.40.0+3.43.4Bust
Oronde Gadsden IITELAC3.40.0+3.43.4Bust
James CookRBBUF19.022.3-3.33.3In
Sean TuckerRBTB5.11.8+3.33.3Bust
Colson YankoffTEWAS0.63.8-3.23.2Boom
Elijah HigginsTEARI4.07.2-3.23.2Boom
Mike Washington Jr.RBLV4.71.5+3.23.2Bust
Daniel JonesQBIND14.211.1+3.13.1In
Darnell WashingtonTEPIT5.32.2+3.13.1Bust
Kyren WilliamsRBLAR19.716.6+3.13.1Bust
Rasheen AliRBBAL0.73.8-3.13.1Boom
Troy FranklinWRDEN5.72.6+3.13.1Bust
Aaron JonesRBMIN14.217.2-3.03.0In
Dawson KnoxTEBUF4.11.1+3.03.0Bust
Austin EkelerRBWAS4.81.9+2.92.9In
Cooper KuppWRSEA5.42.5+2.92.9Bust
Tai FeltonWRMIN0.83.7-2.92.9Boom
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN11.28.3+2.92.9In
Bo MeltonWRGB0.73.5-2.82.8Boom
Brock BowersTELV16.219.0-2.82.8In
Connor HeywardRBLV3.50.8+2.72.7Bust
Jalen TolbertWRMIA5.42.7+2.72.7In
Josh DownsWRIND8.96.2+2.72.7In
Kalif RaymondWRCHI4.61.9+2.72.7In
Brenton StrangeTEJAX7.710.3-2.62.6In
Erick AllTECIN1.44.0-2.62.6Boom
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN14.116.7-2.62.6In
Cam SkatteboRBNYG8.66.1+2.52.5In
Josh CameronWRJAX3.35.8-2.52.5Boom
Roschon JohnsonRBCHI4.06.5-2.52.5In
Skyler BellWRBUF2.50.0+2.52.5Bust
Adam PrenticeRBDEN2.70.3+2.42.4Bust
Deion BurksWRIND2.40.0+2.42.4Bust
Dyami BrownWRWAS3.10.7+2.42.4Bust
Fernando MendozaQBLV4.62.2+2.42.4In
KaVontae TurpinWRDAL3.61.2+2.42.4In
Jahan DotsonWRATL4.16.4-2.32.3In
Josh CuevasTEBAL1.33.6-2.32.3Boom
Laquon TreadwellWRIND2.14.4-2.32.3Boom
Rashid ShaheedWRSEA5.63.3+2.32.3In
Tyrod TaylorQBGB2.1-0.2+2.32.3Bust
Bryce LanceWRNO2.20.0+2.22.2Bust
Cole KmetTECHI3.51.3+2.22.2In
Corey KinerRBNE2.24.4-2.22.2Boom
Deshaun WatsonQBCLE14.412.2+2.22.2In
Greg DortchWRBUF2.20.0+2.22.2Bust
Hunter LuepkeRBDAL2.70.5+2.22.2Bust
Khalil ShakirWRBUF7.39.5-2.22.2In
Kyler MurrayQBMIN16.118.3-2.22.2In
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RBNYG6.34.1+2.22.2Bust
Brevyn Spann-FordTEDAL2.10.0+2.12.1Bust
Chris Godwin Jr.WRTB7.65.5+2.12.1In
Cody WhiteWRLV3.35.4-2.12.1In
Dontayvion WicksWRPHI10.98.8+2.12.1In
Jonathan MingoWRDAL0.93.0-2.12.1Boom
Riley NowakowskiRBPIT2.90.8+2.12.1In
D'Andre SwiftRBCHI13.315.3-2.02.0In
Johnny MundtTEPHI2.00.0+2.02.0Bust
Jordan WhittingtonWRLAR2.80.8+2.02.0Bust
Kaden WetjenWRPIT2.00.0+2.02.0Bust
Sione VakiRBDET3.11.1+2.02.0In
Theo JohnsonTENYG6.54.5+2.02.0In
Tyler BadieRBDEN2.60.6+2.02.0Bust
Zay FlowersWRBAL12.610.6+2.02.0In
Devaughn VeleWRNO6.54.6+1.91.9In
Luther Burden IIIWRCHI8.86.9+1.91.9In
Velus Jones Jr.RBSEA0.42.3-1.91.9Boom
Foster MoreauTEHOU3.61.8+1.81.8In
John BatesTEWAS2.40.6+1.81.8In
Tyson BagentQBCHI3.01.2+1.81.8In
Daniel BellingerTETEN2.71.0+1.71.7In
Jared WayneWRHOU1.70.0+1.71.7Bust
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA18.620.3-1.71.7In
Tyler HigbeeTELAR9.110.8-1.71.7In
Antonio WilliamsWRWAS3.04.6-1.61.6In
Barion BrownWRNO1.60.0+1.61.6Bust
Brady RussellRBSEA2.40.8+1.61.6In
Drew SampleTECIN2.61.0+1.61.6In
Jaylen WrightRBMIA2.71.1+1.61.6In
Trent SherfieldWRBUF0.72.3-1.61.6Boom
Jahdae WalkerWRCHI1.50.0+1.51.5Bust
Keaton MitchellRBLAC5.94.4+1.51.5In
Malachi CorleyWRCLE0.82.3-1.51.5Boom
Mason RudolphQBPIT1.3-0.2+1.51.5Bust
Raheim SandersRBCLE3.31.8+1.51.5In
Cameron LatuTENE0.11.5-1.41.4Boom
Elijah ArroyoTESEA1.40.0+1.41.4Bust
Ian ThomasTELV2.81.4+1.41.4In
Isaiah WilliamsWRNYJ3.82.4+1.41.4In
Keenan AllenWRIND5.67.0-1.41.4In
Marvin Mims Jr.WRDEN3.31.9+1.41.4In
Matthew StaffordQBLAR25.927.3-1.41.4In
Bhayshul TutenRBJAX11.910.6+1.31.3In
Brayden WillisTESF0.21.5-1.31.3Boom
Demond ClaiborneRBMIN2.41.1+1.31.3In
Derius DavisWRLAC1.30.0+1.31.3Bust
Kylen GransonTETEN1.30.0+1.31.3Bust
LeQuint Allen Jr.RBJAX1.30.0+1.31.3Bust
Luke SchoonmakerTEDAL2.71.4+1.31.3In
Malachi FieldsWRNYG4.33.0+1.31.3In
Tre HarrisWRLAC3.92.6+1.31.3In
Kaelon BlackRBSF2.81.6+1.21.2In
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRLAC2.03.2-1.21.2In
Mike GesickiTECIN8.16.9+1.21.2In
Terry McLaurinWRWAS9.010.2-1.21.2In
Treylon BurksWRWAS2.43.6-1.21.2In
Nick MuseTEATL0.41.5-1.11.1Boom
Pierre StrongRBGB2.23.3-1.11.1In
Will KacmarekTEMIA2.11.0+1.11.1Bust
Dallas GoedertTEPHI5.86.8-1.01.0In
Jacob CowingWRSF0.4-0.6+1.01.0Bust
Jordan JamesRBSF2.51.5+1.01.0In
Michael BurtonRBCLE1.80.8+1.01.0In
Charlie WoernerTEATL0.91.8-0.90.9Boom
Davis AllenTELAR2.53.4-0.90.9In
Jacob SaylorsRBDET0.90.0+0.90.9Bust
Jelani WoodsTENYJ0.90.0+0.90.9Bust
Malik BensonWRLV2.01.1+0.90.9In
Myles PriceWRMIN0.61.5-0.90.9Boom
Quintin MorrisTEJAX0.61.5-0.90.9Boom
Deven ThompkinsWRLV0.51.3-0.80.8Boom
Nate BoerkircherTEJAX2.23.0-0.80.8In
Seydou TraoreTEMIA2.31.5+0.80.8In
Trey McBrideTEARI16.317.1-0.80.8In
Cade StoverTEHOU1.50.8+0.70.7In
Carson SteeleRBPHI0.70.0+0.70.7Bust
DeeJay DallasRBMIN0.91.6-0.70.7Boom
Devin DuvernayWRARI0.70.0+0.70.7Bust
Isaiah DavisRBNYJ1.52.2-0.70.7In
Jackson HawesTEBUF0.70.0+0.70.7Bust
Kaleb JohnsonRBGB1.92.6-0.70.7In
Kayshon BoutteWRHOU4.65.3-0.70.7In
Mo Alie-CoxTEIND1.72.4-0.70.7In
Zavion ThomasWRCHI2.02.7-0.70.7In
Ben YurosekTEMIN0.91.5-0.60.6In
Jalen BrooksWRARI2.02.6-0.60.6In
Kameron JohnsonWRTB0.60.0+0.60.6Bust
LaJohntay WesterWRBAL0.60.0+0.60.6Bust
Makai LemonWRPHI6.26.8-0.60.6In
Reggie VirgilWRARI3.33.9-0.60.6In
Tucker KraftTEGB8.59.1-0.60.6Bust
Alex BachmanWRLAR0.50.0+0.50.5Bust
Bauer SharpTETB1.01.5-0.50.5Boom
Kalel MullingsRBTEN0.80.3+0.50.5In
Luke FarrellTESF0.50.0+0.50.5Bust
Luke McCaffreyWRWAS1.01.5-0.50.5In
Skyy MooreWRGB1.00.5+0.50.5In
Tom KennedyWRDET0.50.0+0.50.5Bust
Travis HunterWRJAX0.91.4-0.50.5In
Anthony GouldWRIND0.40.0+0.40.4Bust
Brevin JordanTEHOU2.63.0-0.40.4In
Brock WrightTEDET2.01.6+0.40.4In
Courtland SuttonWRDEN9.28.8+0.40.4In
Keleki LatuTEBUF0.40.0+0.40.4Bust
Keon ColemanWRBUF7.67.2+0.40.4In
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWRDEN1.71.3+0.40.4In
Oscar DelpTENO1.20.8+0.40.4In
Rashod BatemanWRBAL8.38.7-0.40.4Bust
Seth McGowanRBIND2.82.4+0.40.4In
Theo Wease Jr.WRLAC1.72.1-0.40.4In
Britain CoveyWRPHI0.30.0+0.30.3Bust
Calvin RidleyWRTEN4.64.3+0.30.3In
Charlie JonesWRNYG0.30.0+0.30.3Bust
Chris BellWRMIA2.92.6+0.30.3In
Dameon PierceRBPHI2.52.2+0.30.3In
Drake LondonWRATL15.615.3+0.30.3In
Greg DulcichTEMIA7.47.7-0.30.3In
Javonte WilliamsRBDAL13.513.2+0.30.3In
Kene NwangwuRBNYJ0.30.0+0.30.3Bust
Lew Nichols IIIRBPIT0.30.6-0.30.3Boom
Andrew OgletreeTEIND0.70.9-0.20.2In
Charlie KolarTELAC3.03.2-0.20.2In
Tahj BrooksRBCIN1.00.8+0.20.2In
Tay MartinWRDET0.60.8-0.20.2In
Zachariah BranchWRATL2.72.5+0.20.2In
Zavier ScottRBCHI1.71.5+0.20.2In
Dalen CambreWRNYG0.90.8+0.10.1In
Elic AyomanorWRTEN2.32.2+0.10.1In
George HolaniRBSEA3.03.1-0.10.1In
Malik WashingtonWRMIA9.29.1+0.10.1In
Payne DurhamTETB0.91.0-0.10.1In
Ray DavisRBBUF3.73.8-0.10.1In
Tyjae SpearsRBTEN5.45.3+0.10.1In
Ben SinnottTEWAS0.80.80.00.0In
Sam RoushTECHI1.51.50.00.0In

FAQ

What is this table?
A grade of Engine weekly projections against official box scores, scored in half-PPR. Pick a year and a week, or season overall across every finished week. It is not Dynasty Value Score and not a start/sit ranking.
Which projection do you use?
The last snapshot posted before that player’s game kicked off. Tuesday’s first look is not the grade if a later injury refresh landed before kickoff.
Who is left out?
Players tagged Out or Doubtful before kickoff. Kickers, team defenses, and IDP are not on this board. Early-game injuries still count — we do not have a clean in-game exit timestamp.
What do boom and bust mean here?
Boom: official score finished above the published ceiling. Bust: below the published floor. In the band: between them. Together they are 100% of lines that had a floor and ceiling. Typical miss (MAE) is still how close the point projection was.
What is season overall?
Every finished week in that NFL year, pooled as player-weeks. One player can appear once per week. Mean error and inside-range are across that pool, not a single average of weekly averages.
Is this the same as confidence on My Team?
No. Roster confidence is how much pre-game signal the model had. This page is after-the-fact accuracy.